A post about the “Black Swan” phenomenon and the Japan earthquake has generated unusual traffic over at my other blog, so I thought I’d repost it here at Maryland On My Mind.
The Black Swan piece, originally posted March 14, 2011, has not been updated to reflect all the developments in the nuclear power crisis in Japan, which has now been declared as serious as the Chernobyl accident in Russia in 1986. However, the importance of the post is that it calls attention to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book about highly improbable and unpredictable events, and their impact.
The post below includes two informative videos by Mr. Taleb.
Readers might also be interested in considering the possible serious, unintended consequences of shutting down the U.S. government. A government shutdown has the potential to spark a dangerous “Black Swan” in the U.S., in my opinion.
— John Hayden
- Fallout of nuclear and financial meltdowns (search.japantimes.co.jp)
- World economy facing numerous ‘black swans’, IMF chief warns (guardian.co.uk)
- The Hidden Beauty of Japan’s Black Swan (fastcompany.com)
- You: Japan’s ‘black swan’: Scientists ponder the unparalleled dangers of unlikely disasters (washingtonpost.com)